What a Trump presidency means for CPG brands

The outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election could have far-reaching implications for businesses across various sectors, and consumer packaged goods (CPG) brands are no exception. With changes in policy, economic priorities, and regulatory environments, CPG brands must navigate a shifting landscape that could impact everything from consumer spending patterns to supply chain stability. As we get closer to Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025), understanding these potential changes and adapting strategies accordingly will be crucial for CPG brands looking to stay competitive and resilient in the face of a new administration.

In this post, Mintel experts across categories will explore key ways the election results could impact CPG brands and what they can do to prepare.

As Americans headed to the polls in late October, 61% agreed they were tired of election news and political discussions. Despite the patterns emerging in consumer sentiment, it’s important to remember that the American population is not a monolith. Post-election sentiments vary across demographic cohorts and political affiliations. Based on the election’s popular vote, it’s clear that a share of the US population is currently celebrating and excited to see the change the new administration will bring. Brands aiming for mass market appeal can build on this positive momentum in their messaging of unity and togetherness. Employing forward-looking messaging that appeals to the idea of embracing change and a fresh start can engage a broad share of the market.

On the other hand, brands marketing to a distinct consumer base should explore a more nuanced approach. For example, marketing specifically to multicultural women under the new administration will require more tailored messaging. Exit polls show that Black women overwhelmingly turned out for Vice President Harris, which indicates the election results likely hold more emotional weight among these consumers. As Black and multicultural women move forward post-election, brands engaging with these groups will want to consider messaging that emphasizes self-care, encourages mental well-being, and ultimately endows consumers with a sense of continued hope and empowerment. This type of messaging will likely resonate with Black female consumers more than messaging that fails to recognize their unique perspective on the election results.

The 2024 election solidified social media’s power in the country’s political landscape. Over half of Gen Z and Millennials used at least one social media platform to keep up with election news and coverage. It’s also evident that social media amplifies influential, virtual echo chambers that are shaping users’ political outlooks and views.

Consumers who relied on X, Facebook, Instagram, and/or TikTok for 2024 election coverage have distinct opinions compared to the total population. These consumers are more likely to view the country as less divided, demonstrating the way social media coverage reverberates the perspectives and values that users already “like” and subscribe to.

As social media becomes more ingrained in the country’s political culture and news consumption, traditional news outlets will need to develop new strategies to earn consumers’ trust and be heard among social media platforms’ distorting algorithms. 

In the wake of recent political shifts, the beauty and personal care industry is poised to navigate a complex landscape of challenges and opportunities. As tariffs increase, brands face the inevitable rise in the cost of goods, which will transfer to the consumer. This in itself will reshape market dynamics, particularly for middle and lower economic segments.

The impact of tariffs will be felt across the entire supply chain, from ingredients to packaging and finished goods. This could have an impact on the pace of innovation, as brands are forced to reformulate, identify domestic ingredient sources, rationalize SKUs, and reevaluate distribution.

K-beauty recently made a resurgence in the US market, especially in the sun protection category. There is potential that those products, once accessible to many, may transform into a luxury market, predominantly serving affluent consumers.

The potential economic implications are profound. With financial concerns heightened post-election, consumers are expected to prioritize basic needs over discretionary beauty expenses. This shift could lead to a downtrend in high-end product categories, forcing prestige brands to reconsider their pricing strategies and explore affordable offerings. It may also shift the focus to beauty as an “affordable luxury”, while prices in other consumer goods categories, such as fashion, soar.

Alterations to healthcare legislation, notably the Affordable Care Act, may further influence consumer behavior. As insurance coverage becomes less accessible, the demand for affordable over-the-counter (OTC) health products will surge. This trend underscores the need for OTC brands to innovate, and to meet consumer expectations for safety and efficacy.

Simultaneously, the resurgence of ‘Made in America’ marketing reflects a broader push for localized manufacturing and sourcing. However, this shift may potentially stall product innovation as brands grapple with supply chain constraints and rising expenses.

Potential reductions in FDA regulations could impact product safety. Diminished oversight increases the risk of product recalls and erodes consumer trust. This could impact claims and product labeling related to OTC products (ie anti-acne). Bold claims made without validation may surge, fueling consumer mistrust.

Brands will need to reassess their marketing strategies, potentially retreating from inclusive, social issue-based messaging as they adapt to economic populism. In essence, the BPC industry is at a pivotal crossroads, where economic, political, and social factors converge. Brands that remain agile, responsive, and innovative are likely to thrive, turning challenges into opportunities in this ever-evolving market landscape.

Have you looked at your 401K since the election? If you are among the 60% of adults with a 401K, checking your balance since the election might bring a smile to your face. The stock market soared to new heights following Donald Trump’s victory, as investors bet that his promises of tax cuts and deregulation will spur economic growth, known as “The Trump Trade.” Similarly, if you are one of the 40% of consumers owning cryptocurrency, you might be equally delighted. Bitcoin has reached unprecedented levels, fueled by Trump’s campaign pledge to make America the “crypto capital of the planet.”

Conversely, millions of Americans who don’t participate in the stock market or own crypto are not experiencing these benefits. Consumer debt is at record levels, and many continue to feel the pressure on household budgets due to persistent inflation. This highlights a divide, reminiscent of sentiments after Trump’s first election victory. While some aspects have evolved, fundamental challenges remain.

In the financial services industry, there is cautious optimism that Trump will ease financial regulations, which have posed challenges for the sector. The potential approval of Capital One’s acquisition of Discover – which would create the largest credit card issuer in the US – now seems more likely, reflected in their rising stock prices. However, uncertainty looms. His proposal of a 10% cap on credit card interest rates stands in contrast to his pro-business image, illustrating the unpredictability of future policies.

For consumers, especially older ones, concerns about tax policies and regulatory changes are significant. The question on everyone’s mind is, ‘What does it mean for me?’—whether it’s about investments, mortgages, retirement, student loans, or any other financial concern you can fill in the blank with. In this uncertain climate, financial services brands must prioritize transparent communication to address consumer questions and provide assurance. Those who prioritize consumer needs will build trust and loyalty for the future.

Prior to the election, in August 2024, Mintel research showed that 55% of Americans said the outcome of the 2024 elections was a significant source of stress for them and 64% felt there would be more political division after the 2024 election. The American Psychological Association also reported the majority of Americans, 77%, considered the future of the US as a significant source of stress in their lives. 

Over the past several years, the aftershocks of highly disruptive events have caused US consumers to reassess their spending priorities. In the two months preceding October 2024, 35% had cut back on dining out/other leisure activities and 28% had cut back on luxuries/non-essential products.  

As outlined in Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, consumers will put their physiological and safety needs first. Food and drink are essential to people’s basic physiological needs, alongside housing and security, which must be met before people can feel a sense of comfort and belonging. 

Maslow’s psychological theory creates the opportunity for food and drink companies to offer non-partisan reassurance to anxious consumers by providing all consumers with tasty, affordable, and safe food and drink. Mintel data reveals that over half of US consumers think US brands/companies should not address major political events that affect the country.

A primary message for food and drink brands needs to be on efforts to maintain prices, or when possible lower them. Inflation is an aftershock that has left US consumers weary. Nearly 6 in 10 US consumers had been affected by increases in food and drink prices in the two months leading up to October 2024. This is little reprieve from fall 2023 when 65% of US consumers reported they were affected by increases in food and drink prices. Brands will need to offer compassion and economical solutions this holiday season and beyond. Already, retailers such as Aldi, Target, and Walmart are aiming to attract consumers with low-priced Thanksgiving meals.

As campaign promises are transformed into new policies in 2025, the safety pillar of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs will come into focus. Food safety and security will become a key issue as the new administration shares its plans for tariffs, de-regulation, and immigration. Amid these shifts, companies can offer consistency by reminding consumers of their long-term, global commitments to sustainability and social responsibility.

Honoring those commitments can rebuild consumers’ trust, as nearly 8 in 10 US consumers who are responsible for food and drink shopping in their households think big food companies are more concerned about profits than sustainability. Furthermore, nearly 7 in 10 US consumers agree it is possible for brands to support social causes without getting political.

For CPG brands, the future may feel a bit foggy, but one thing is clear: staying on brand amidst a divided post-election landscape will require finesse. Messaging priorities may need to be carefully adjusted to keep brand values steady and consistent, even as public sentiment shifts. Fortunately, the lessons learned during COVID-19—about agility, empathy, and listening closely to consumers—will be invaluable in these uncertain times. Flexibility and responsiveness will be key to navigating the shifting landscape of topics and issues that may surface unexpectedly. Remember, staying the course sometimes requires small adjustments. Having a clear vision of the entire landscape will be essential to making the best decisions.

Brands that can steer clear of divisive messaging and stay above the fray have the potential to stand out as steady, reliable presences. This approach doesn’t mean abandoning values or principles but rather amplifying messages that bring people together, inspire nostalgia, or celebrate shared experiences. By leaning into universal themes like family, comfort, and wellness, brands can offer a sense of normalcy and stability that consumers are craving. These small shifts in messaging can help CPG companies act as a beacon to all consumers—reminding people of what they love and trust about these brands, even in challenging times.

Now, more than ever, CPG brands have the chance to be voices of calm and unity in a world that feels turbulent. Staying sensitive to public mood, while staying true to core values, will be a winning strategy for brands seeking to maintain relevance, trust, and loyalty in a post-election era.

If you have questions about what comes next and what a second Trump Presidency will mean for your brand, that’s the perfect time to get in touch with Mintel Consulting to discover how the team can offer a customized view of your business, marketing, and innovation strategy.