Global advertising spending is on course to grow 11.9 percent in 2026 to about $1.34 trillion, according to the latest WARC Media forecast published this week — a third consecutive year of double-digit expansion after growth of roughly 10 percent in both 2024 and 2025.
The upgrade, reported on Friday, October 9, 2026, underlines a striking feature of the current market: marketing budgets are accelerating even as many households report feeling squeezed. WARC attributes the surge to heavy corporate investment in artificial intelligence, a packed calendar of major events including the Winter Olympics, the FIFA World Cup and the US midterm elections, and the continued migration of budgets into performance channels that can be adjusted quickly when conditions change.
Social media, search and retail media are the biggest winners. Together, the three channels are expected to account for 66.4 percent of all global ad spend in 2026, rising to about 70 percent by 2028. Social is the fastest-growing of the three, up 21.3 percent to $394.6 billion, and is on course to pass $500 billion in 2028. Retail media grows 14.3 percent to $202.1 billion, search rises 14.2 percent to $295.7 billion, and video on demand climbs 15.1 percent to $48.4 billion. Digital out-of-home also posts double-digit growth, up 13.7 percent.
The concentration of spending at the top of the market remains stark. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are together expected to take 59.7 percent of global ad spend outside China this year, worth about $659.6 billion, with their combined share forecast to reach 61.5 percent by 2028. Traditional channels continue to lose ground in the mix: WARC forecasts radio investment down 1.9 percent and publishing down 2.4 percent this year.
By category, technology and electronics is the fastest-growing advertiser sector, up 20.7 percent year on year, followed by travel and transport at 19.3 percent and automotive at 17.8 percent. WARC notes that social media alone will account for more than 40 percent of all technology and electronics advertising spending in 2026, a sign of how central the channel has become to product launches.
WARC’s own analysts describe the moment as an apparent contradiction. Investment is accelerating while consumer confidence surveys point the other way, which the firm links to an uneven economy in which AI-driven growth is benefiting some companies, sectors and households far more than others. The forecast also carries a clear caveat: further escalation of global tensions could knock the outlook down.
For marketing teams planning 2027 budgets, the practical read is that the centre of gravity has shifted decisively. Nearly four-fifths of incremental spending now flows to retail media, paid search and social platforms, leaving traditional media to compete for the remainder — and forcing a rethink of planning models built for a more balanced channel mix.
