Global advertising spend is forecast to grow 11.9% to US$1.34 trillion in 2026, according to the Q3 2026 update of WARC Media’s Global Ad Spend Forecast, as corporate investment in artificial intelligence and a packed calendar of global events pull marketing budgets higher despite consumer caution.
The forecast extends two successive years of roughly 10% growth, in 2024 and 2025. WARC describes an “apparent contradiction”: investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures. “This apparent contradiction reflects an increasingly uneven economy, where growth — particularly from the AI boom — is benefiting some companies, sectors and consumers more than others,” said Suzy Young, Head of WARC Media Data.
Where the money is going
Social media is set for the strongest growth of any major channel, up 21.3% to $394.6 billion, and WARC expects it to cross $500 billion in 2028. Retail media grows 14.3% to $202.1 billion and search 14.2% to $295.7 billion. The three channels together will account for 66.4% of all global ad spend this year, rising to 70% in 2028.
Video on demand rises 15.1% to $48.4 billion and digital out-of-home 13.7% to $21.7 billion. Alphabet, Amazon and Meta will take a combined 59.7% of global ad spend excluding China — $659.6 billion — rising to 61.5% ($804.1 billion) in 2028. Drivers cited include the Winter Olympics, the FIFA World Cup and the US midterm elections, alongside AI spending by technology firms. Technology and electronics is the fastest-growing product category at 20.7% — a pattern already visible as social platforms open new off-platform inventory to advertisers.
What planners should do with it
For planners, 2026 looks like a demand-capture year: concentrate test budgets in social, search and retail media early, because the three dominant platforms’ growing share means auction prices will firm as the year progresses. WARC’s own caution matters too — “further escalations of global tensions” are the named downside risk — so committing the full year upfront is riskier than holding a contingency reserve.
The forecast also separates event-driven from structural growth. Television gets a 1.2% lift to $176.2 billion on the Olympics and World Cup, but publishing falls 2.4%, radio 1.9% and online display 2.5%. Money leaving print and linear radio is not coming back, so planners should treat event TV as a one-year window, not a trend reversal. WARC expects growth to moderate to 8.4% in 2027 ($1.46 trillion) and 7.9% in 2028 ($1.57 trillion) — the read: 2026 is an unusually generous window, and planners who lock in inventory and first-party data strategies early will get the most out of it.
