U.S. advertising spending is now expected to grow faster this year than buyers predicted in January, according to an updated industry outlook released this autumn. The forecast puts full-year growth at 12.3%, up from the 9.5% projected at the start of the year, after a stronger-than-expected first half.
The upgrade follows a busy opening to 2026. Major live events, including the Winter Olympics and the football World Cup, lifted spending across television and digital channels, while easing worries about the wider economy encouraged brands to keep budgets moving. Social media is expected to post the strongest channel growth, at about 16.5%, followed closely by connected TV at about 15.6% and commerce media at about 13.6%. Linear television is the only major channel expected to shrink.
What buyers want from that spending is also shifting. Winning new customers was cited by 63% of decision-makers, up nine points since January, while building brand equity rose to 43%. Repeat purchases held broadly flat. The pattern suggests advertisers are less willing to simply defend existing demand and more focused on reaching people who have not bought from them before.
Artificial intelligence runs through the outlook as well. Adapting to changing consumer behaviour, including AI-driven search, was named the top media investment challenge by 44% of buyers, and concern about low-quality AI-generated content followed at 38%. Cross-platform measurement also rose in importance, cited by 72% of respondents.
The practical message for marketing teams is twofold. First, this year’s growth is flattered by one-off events, so budgets built entirely around tournament and election inventory may need rebalancing next year. Second, the brands described as best placed are those connecting with undecided shoppers at the right moment, in the right context, as discovery moves steadily from the search box to the answer engine.
None of this guarantees an easy year. The same outlook that raised the forecast also flags real uncertainty in the economy, and buyers who locked pricing assumptions to this year’s event-fuelled growth may find next year’s negotiations harder. The forecast is best read as permission to invest with intent, not as a promise that the tide will lift every plan placed against it.
