Consumers are pushing back against the ever-earlier start to holiday marketing, according to new seasonal research, even if their buying behaviour has not fully caught up with the preference. Half of shoppers surveyed said brands should begin holiday advertising in October, a shift from last year, when August and September starts were more popular.
Timing, however, turns out not to be the lever that decides a purchase. About four in ten shoppers said campaigns starting as early as August have no impact on whether they buy, and nearly half said an early start makes them somewhat or much more likely to purchase. Content and relevance, the research suggests, matter more than the calendar.
Money is the stronger force this year. Some 69% of consumers said they are concerned about price rises linked to tariffs, and more than a third plan to shop earlier specifically to get ahead of further increases. Overall, 56% expect to reduce their holiday spending because of economic conditions.
Separate peak-season analysis of billions of emails and text messages points to one reliable counterweight: personalisation. During last year’s peak, online stores sending personalised emails recorded a notably higher average order value than those sending generic messages, with the gap widening sharply over the Black Friday and Cyber Monday weekend. Repeat customers also carried the season, accounting for roughly two thirds of email orders in the Canadian data examined.
The combined picture for retailers is a cautious shopper who still responds to being recognised. Shoppers may spend less in total, but relevant, well-timed messages to known customers remain the surest route to protecting the order value of those who do buy.
The research also carries a warning about discount theatre. Shoppers facing tariff-linked price rises are comparing more carefully and punishing offers that look engineered rather than genuine. Retailers that pair honest pricing with the personal recognition the data rewards are, on this evidence, better placed than those relying on louder and earlier noise.
