Global advertising spend is forecast to grow 11.9 per cent to $1.34 trillion in 2026, according to WARC’s Media Global Ad Spend Forecast Q3 2026 update, released on 8 October.
The growth follows back-to-back 10 per cent increases in 2024 and 2025. WARC attributed the acceleration to heavy corporate investment in artificial intelligence and to major events including the Winter Olympics, the FIFA World Cup and the US mid-term elections, offsetting consumer caution and geopolitical uncertainty.
Social media is set to be the fastest-growing major channel, up 21.3 per cent to $394.6 billion — on course to exceed $500 billion in 2028. Video on demand rises 15.1 per cent to $48.4 billion, retail media 14.3 per cent to $202.1 billion, search 14.2 per cent to $295.7 billion and digital out of home 13.7 per cent to $21.7 billion. Together, social, search and retail media will account for 66.4 per cent of all ad spend in 2026.
Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are expected to take a combined 59.7 per cent of global ad spend outside China, equivalent to $659.6 billion. Television is forecast to grow 1.2 per cent to $176.2 billion, while radio and publishing are expected to decline.
Looking ahead, WARC forecasts growth of 8.4 per cent in 2027 to $1.46 trillion. Further escalation of global tensions is flagged as the main downside risk.
For the trade, the forecast confirms the uneven shape of the market: performance-led, measurable channels are pulling away while traditional media drift. As uncertainty becomes the norm, budgets are following signals that can prove their return.
The forecast also underlines why the industry’s biggest arguments — over AI, measurement and the value of attention — are really arguments about money. With two-thirds of spend now flowing through three channel groups, whoever sets the terms of measurement sets the terms of trade.
