American shoppers are entering the holiday season in a selective mood, spending with intent rather than abandoning the season altogether, according to Circana’s 2026 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions Study, released on 8 October.
The survey of 3,534 consumers found average holiday spending of $779, down slightly from $796 last year. More than one in five shoppers plan to spend over $1,000. On that basis, Circana expects fourth-quarter holiday spending to range from a 1 per cent decline to a 2.5 per cent increase compared with 2025.
Shoppers remain focused on value, the study found, but they are also seeking gifts and experiences that deliver personal relevance, emotional connection and lasting impact. Convenience matters too: time-poor consumers are looking for shopping that fits around their lives.
The findings point to a new definition of value that extends beyond price alone. According to reports, Circana’s head of global thought leadership, Kiara Barrett, said consumers are becoming increasingly purposeful about where and how they spend, prioritising purchases that create meaningful moments, strengthen personal connections, improve everyday life or simply deliver a sense of joy.
For marketers, the study sets up a holiday season where deals still matter but storytelling matters more. Brands that can connect their offers to personal meaning — and make buying effortless — look best placed to capture the cautious but willing shopper.
The research also underlines the split nature of the 2026 consumer economy. With one group tightening budgets and another still willing to spend four figures, broad-brush holiday campaigns risk missing both: the careful majority wants proof of value, while the big spenders want proof of meaning. Planning that speaks to each group separately looks like the sharper play.
